Next halving (est.)
PendingApril 2028
- Floor
- $117,702
- Line
- $244,304
Rainbow fair price that day: $124,742
Bitcoin Power Law
Put both price and time on log scales and 16 years of Bitcoin prices cluster around one straight line: the power law. Here is that line, the floor under it, and a test of how well each has held.
Line today
Today's value of the straight line that best fits every daily close.
$142,765 · price 42% below
Floor today
A second line, with its own slope, drawn so that 99% of all daily closes sit above it. It lands close to the floor usually quoted online.
$68,726 · price 20% above
Floor catches up in
How long the floor, rising on its own slope, would take to reach today's price if the price stood still. Arithmetic on the line, not a forecast.
7 months · Apr 2027
Broke the floor in
Each close checked against the floor as it could have been drawn that day, from earlier prices only (redrawn every month). Since the first halving (28 Nov 2012), 320 of 5,064 closes fell below it: 6.3%, against the 1% the floor is drawn to allow. Years: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2026.
7 years · last Aug 2026
Price, the line and its floorLine: the straight line that best fits every daily close on these axes (least squares). Time counts in days since Bitcoin's first block, 3 Jan 2009.
Floor: a line with its own slope, placed so that 1% of daily closes fall below it (a 1% quantile regression). It lands close to the floor usually quoted online.
Rainbow fair price: the dashed line on the rainbow chart, for comparison.
Shading: the floor redrawn on the first of each month from earlier prices only, with each close checked against that version.
R² 96.2% over 5,928 daily closes: how closely the line tracks past prices. Least squares picks the line that maximises exactly this number, so a high value says nothing about the future.
Line: the straight line that best fits every daily close on these axes (least squares). Time counts in days since Bitcoin's first block, 3 Jan 2009.
Floor: a line with its own slope, placed so that 1% of daily closes fall below it (a 1% quantile regression). It lands close to the floor usually quoted online.
Rainbow fair price: the dashed line on the rainbow chart, for comparison.
Shading: the floor redrawn on the first of each month from earlier prices only, with each close checked against that version.
R² 96.2% over 5,928 daily closes: how closely the line tracks past prices. Least squares picks the line that maximises exactly this number, so a high value says nothing about the future.
$0.01$0.10$1$10$100$1k$10k$100k$1M20112012201420172021
- Price
- Line
- Floor
- Rainbow fair price
- Below the floor at the time
Both axes on log scales. Dashed: beyond today. Shaded: days below the floor as it was drawn back then, from earlier prices only, so the shading does not always line up with the floor shown here.
The formulan: the exponent. Each time Bitcoin's age doubles, the line ends about 50 times higher.
A: sets the line's height, written as a power of ten because it is so small.
Rounded: A and n are shown to three decimals, so working it out by hand lands within about 1% of the value shown.
R² 96.2%: how closely the line fits past prices, not how well it predicts.
n: the exponent. Each time Bitcoin's age doubles, the line ends about 50 times higher.
A: sets the line's height, written as a power of ten because it is so small.
Rounded: A and n are shown to three decimals, so working it out by hand lands within about 1% of the value shown.
R² 96.2%: how closely the line fits past prices, not how well it predicts.
price = A × daysn
days: days since Bitcoin's first block, 3 Jan 2009
| A | n | Today (day 6,488) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | 10−16.351 | 5.641 | $142,765 |
| Floor | 10−17.835 | 5.947 | $68,726 |
Did the floor hold after each top?Each bar draws the floor from the prices up to that top and none after, then checks every close until the next top, or until today for the current cycle.
Bar: the lowest close in that stretch, against the floor on that same day.
Each bar draws the floor from the prices up to that top and none after, then checks every close until the next top, or until today for the current cycle.
Bar: the lowest close in that stretch, against the floor on that same day.
Floor
−42%
−5%
−23%
−12%
2013*761 d
20173 d
2021178 d
202575 d · so far
Is the growth rate steady?Between two tops, the exponent the price grew at: how fast it rose relative to Bitcoin's age. The power law holds it fixed; the rainbow lets it decline.
Between two tops, the exponent the price grew at: how fast it rose relative to Bitcoin's age. The power law holds it fixed; the rainbow lets it decline.
power law 5.64
5.19
4.76
3.42
2.31
2011–13
2013–17
2017–21
2021–25
Model projectionsLine and floor drawn with prices up to the 6 Oct 2025 top and none after, so this cycle's low plays no part.
That is why they differ from the chart, which uses every close: at the next halving the chart's line is 8% lower and its floor 6% lower.
Dates: the next halving on the schedule, and the next top window from the cycle timing, the same one the rainbow uses. Figures are read on the window's first day.
Rainbow fair price: from the rainbow fitted to completed cycles only, as in its own projections, so it can differ a little from the rainbow chart.
Status: once the date arrives, whether each close stays above that day's floor.
Line and floor drawn with prices up to the 6 Oct 2025 top and none after, so this cycle's low plays no part.
That is why they differ from the chart, which uses every close: at the next halving the chart's line is 8% lower and its floor 6% lower.
Dates: the next halving on the schedule, and the next top window from the cycle timing, the same one the rainbow uses. Figures are read on the window's first day.
Rainbow fair price: from the rainbow fitted to completed cycles only, as in its own projections, so it can differ a little from the rainbow chart.
Status: once the date arrives, whether each close stays above that day's floor.
Next top window
PendingJune to December 2029 · values on 2 Jun 2029
- Floor
- $167,509
- Line
- $342,031
Rainbow fair price that day: $157,364
What none of this tells you
The line describes the past it was fitted to. It is not a law the price must obey, and not a price target.
The exponent depends on where you start: begin the fit at a different cycle bottom and it ranges from 4.95 to 5.87, against 5.64 on the whole series.
The line's growth rate never changes. Measured from top to top, Bitcoin's has fallen.
The floor is a statistical line, not a support level: it is drawn so that 1% of past closes sit below it. Drawn in real time since the first halving, it was broken on 6.3% of days.
Explore more
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
Where today's price sits, from bargain to bubble.
Bitcoin Diminishing Returns
How each cycle multiplies less than the last, and what that projects.
The Bitcoin cycle
What the halving does to supply, and every cycle measured.
Bitcoin DCA Calculator
What buying a fixed amount regularly would be worth today.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bitcoin power law?
A straight line through Bitcoin's price when both price and time (days since its first block) are on log scales. Fitted to our 5,928 daily closes, its exponent is 5.64: each time Bitcoin's age doubles, the line ends about 50 times higher. Its R² is 96.2%, which measures how closely it fits the past, not whether it can predict.
Who came up with the Bitcoin power law?
Giovanni Santostasi shared it on Reddit in 2018: with price and time (days since the genesis block) both on log scales, Bitcoin's price sits close to a straight line. Harold Christopher Burger developed the idea further in 2019. Neither is connected to this site; the fit and the tests on this page are our own.
What is the power-law floor today?
$68,726 as of 9 Oct 2026. It is a line drawn so that 99% of all daily closes sit above it, with its own exponent (5.95), and it lands close to the floor usually quoted online. Because it is drawn with hindsight, 1% of past closes sit below it by design; how often it breaks when drawn in real time is the next question.
Has Bitcoin ever closed below the power-law floor?
Yes. Drawn each day with only the prices known then, the floor had 320 of 5,064 closes below it since the first halving (28 Nov 2012), in 7 different years: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2026. The most recent came between 3 Jun 2026 and 18 Aug 2026.
Why do power-law sites show different numbers?
Because the result depends on choices: the first date used, which prices go in (every day, weekly closes or only the lows) and how the floor is placed. Moving only our start date to a different cycle bottom shifts the exponent between 4.95 and 5.87, and today's line between $113,976 and $146,842, against 5.64 and $142,765 on the whole series. An exponent quoted to three decimals hides that spread.
How is it different from the Rainbow Chart?
The rainbow's fair price grows more slowly over time; this line grows at the same rate forever. Today the line is 63% above the rainbow's fair price; at the start of the 2029 top window, the projected line is 117% above it.