Is Bitcoin cheap or expensive?
Bitcoin's cycle is no accident.
Four cycles in, each multiplying less than the last. Our model places today's price inside that history.
$76,676
11% below the model fair price · Fair price
Where it sits on the rainbow
- Model fair price
- $85,822
- From the record high
- −39%
- Next bottom (Jul 26 – Jan 27)
- $37k–$59k
Tools
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The rainbow chart refitted to the cycles: nine valuation bands, today's fair price, and projections for the next cycle.
Bitcoin investment calculator
How much you would have today buying according to an investment plan.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 vs Gold
Bitcoin benchmarked against gold, the S&P 500 and inflation.
Monthly returns
Every month since 2011 in a grid, and the test for whether the calendar explains any of it.
The thesis
The cycle is not a hunch: it's measurable
Each halving follows a measurable cadence: time to the bottom, time to the peak, and drawdown depth. We analyze the average trend across all four cycles to locate where we stand today.
×539
2011
×112
2015
×21.2
2018
×7.9
2022
×4.2
2026
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoinomics?
A small set of free Bitcoin analytics tools built on the complete daily price history. Every number is computed from that series when the page is built, so what a crawler reads and what the charts draw are the same numbers.
Where does the price data come from?
CoinMetrics Community Network Data, refreshed every morning UTC and committed to the repository. The live spot price on top of it comes from Coinbase's public endpoint when you load the page.
Is it free? Do I need an account?
100% free: no account, no tracking cookies, no paywalls. Everything is computed in your browser on data that ships with the page.
Is this financial advice?
No. These are historical models: they describe where the price has been. Use them as context for reading the market, never as a recommendation to buy or sell.