Bottom of this cycle
$37,369 - $58,525
Expected between July 2026 and January 2027
- Drawdown from the previous top
- 70% – 53%
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
A power-law regression with dampening, refitted to Bitcoin's entire price history since 2010, gets an R² of 93.5% across 5,908 daily closes.
Bitcoin price
$81,262
Current band
Fair price
From the record high
−35%
Next bottom (Jul 26 – Jan 27)
Expected between July 2026 and January 2027
$37k–$59k
Price against the model
Cycles: how far it fell, how far it multipliedEvery bottom and top located from the halving calendar, and the law their multiples follow.
Four cycles are four observations. The bottom→top multiple law is the steadiest of the four — its ratio varies by 6% — but the top's price depends mostly on where the bottom lands, and that bottom has not happened yet. The dates are six-month windows for the same reason. The cycles a halving dates have in fact bottomed within six weeks of each other and topped within seven, but three cycles agreeing that closely is a trick of small numbers, not a date we can hold you to.
Every bottom and top located from the halving calendar, and the law their multiples follow.
Four cycles are four observations. The bottom→top multiple law is the steadiest of the four — its ratio varies by 6% — but the top's price depends mostly on where the bottom lands, and that bottom has not happened yet. The dates are six-month windows for the same reason. The cycles a halving dates have in fact bottomed within six weeks of each other and topped within seven, but three cycles agreeing that closely is a trick of small numbers, not a date we can hold you to.
| Bottom | Top | Drawdown How far the price fell from the previous top to reach this bottom. | Multiple How many times the price multiplied from this bottom up to the top on the same row. The multiple law. Each cycle multiplies less than the last, and it does so regularly: the logarithm of the multiple keeps roughly 0.69 of the previous one, cycle after cycle. Applied to the last, the next multiple comes out at ×4.18. Ratio between consecutive logarithms: 0.750 · 0.648 · 0.678 → 0.69 ± 0.043 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.1118 Nov 2011 | $1,1354 Dec 2013 | −93% | ×539 |
| $175.6414 Jan 2015 | $19,64116 Dec 2017 | −85% | ×112 |
| $3,18515 Dec 2018 | $67,5428 Nov 2021 | −84% | ×21.2 |
| $15,7589 Nov 2022 | $124,8246 Oct 2025 | −77% | ×7.9 |
Top of the next cycle
$156,379 - $244,911
Expected between June and December 2029
- Multiple from the previous bottom
- ×4.18
More tools on the same data
Bitcoin investment calculator
How much you would have today buying according to an investment plan.
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 vs Gold
Bitcoin benchmarked against gold, the S&P 500 and inflation.
Satoshi converter
Sats to dollars and dollars to sats at the live price.
The Bitcoin cycle
What the halving does to supply, the four cycles measured against the real price, and why each one multiplies less.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?
A logarithmic chart of Bitcoin's price, overlaid with colour bands that classify the market from "heavily undervalued" to "overheated" against its long-term trend. Unlike the classic static model, this one fits a power law with dampening over complete cycles and derives its nine bands from the percentiles of the price's own history.
How is this rainbow chart calculated?
The centre is a regression on the logarithm of days since the genesis block, passing through each cycle's midpoint — the geometric mean of its top and its bottom. Around it, nine bands are cut at percentiles of the price's historical distance to that centre. The model refits with every data update instead of staying fixed.
Which band is Bitcoin in today?
The “Current band” card at the top of the page shows it against the live price: from “Bargain” to “Peak bubble”, along with the share of history the price spent in that band. The band says where the price sits against its trend, not what it will do tomorrow.
Is the rainbow chart reliable for predicting Bitcoin's price?
The classic rainbow chart used a fixed logarithmic regression, and in 2022 the price fell out of it from below: it had to be redrawn. This model corrects that defect by measuring the deceleration instead of assuming it and refitting to the cycles — but it still describes the past: four completed cycles are only four observations, and no band guarantees the future.
Why is this model's R² lower than other rainbow charts'?
Because we do not maximise it. Least squares over every day — the usual approach — maximises R² by construction: replicated on our own data it scores 96%. Our curve is anchored to the midpoint of each cycle instead. That costs a few points of R² and buys what R² cannot see: a curve that is not tilted against the cycles, the defect that left the classic rainbows projecting a top far below their own bands. R² measures average closeness to the past, not whether the cycle structure is right.
What is Bitcoin's fair price?
The middle of the "Fair price" band — the centre of the middle band of the nine, drawn as the dashed line. Because the bands divide the price range evenly while the price spends more of its time low in that range, it sits where 60% of history has been cheaper, not half of it — hovering any day on the chart gives that day's own percentile. It is not a target value or a prediction.
When are the next cycle bottom and top?
The cycles card projects both from the regularities of the previous cycles: how far each bottom falls, how much each top multiplies, and the halving calendar. What comes out are price ranges and approximate dates with their assumptions in view — not promises.
Is this financial advice?
No. The bands describe where the price has been, not where it will go, and the curve moves with every new cycle. Use it as historical context for reading the market, never as a recommendation to buy or sell.