This cycle's bottom
PendingJuly 2026 to January 2027
$31,860 – $44,910
Lowest close so far: $58,525 on 30 Jun 2026, above the range
Bitcoin diminishing returns
Every cycle has climbed less than the one before, and fallen less. This model uses that to project the next bottom and the next top, from 4 cycles.
Smaller climbs every cycle
×539
2013
×112
2017
×21.2
2021
×7.9
2025
×4.2
2029
Smaller falls every cycle
−93%
2011
−85%
2013
−84%
2017
−77%
2021
−70%
2025
Model projectionsEach cycle has climbed less and fallen less than the one before, by a near-steady ratio. The model carries that ratio one step forward.
Bottom: the fall from the last top, checked against the step from the last bottom.
Top: the climb from that bottom, checked against the step from the last top.
Ranges keep each law's spread. Windows sit around the median timing of the 4 closed cycles. A turn counts as reached when a close lands at or past the near end of its range.
Each cycle has climbed less and fallen less than the one before, by a near-steady ratio. The model carries that ratio one step forward.
Bottom: the fall from the last top, checked against the step from the last bottom.
Top: the climb from that bottom, checked against the step from the last top.
Ranges keep each law's spread. Windows sit around the median timing of the 4 closed cycles. A turn counts as reached when a close lands at or past the near end of its range.
The 2029 top
PendingJune to December 2029
$161,535 – $192,052
Based on 4 cycles. The rainbow's band pattern points to a higher top; both can't hold.
Explore more
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Bitcoin measured against gold, stocks and inflation.
Frequently asked questions
Does Bitcoin have diminishing returns?
So far, yes. From bottom to top each cycle has multiplied less: ×539, ×112, ×21.2 and ×7.9. Each fall from the top has been shallower: −93%, −85%, −84% and −77%. That is 4 cycles, a short record.
What will the next Bitcoin cycle multiple be?
If the pattern holds, about ×4.2, or ×3.8 to ×4.6 with the law's spread. It rests on 4 cycles and is not a forecast.
How accurate is this model?
Projected from earlier cycles only, the multiple came out at ×34.4 against ×21.2 in 2021 and ×8.4 against ×7.9 in 2025. With 2 cases, that is too few to judge it.